Possible change of guard in karnataka?
Will BS Yediyurappa trade punches as he did 10 years ago to launch his own outfit or will he hang up his gloves as and when he is asked to?
BS Yediyurappa's gambit to return to the Bhartiya Janata Party had paid off. In January, 2014, he had merged his Karnataka Janata Paksha with the BJP. And early trends flashing on TV screen showed NDA steadily inching closer to the halfway mark. By noon, 16th May, 2014, Yediyurappa's supporters had started bursting crackers at his residence in Shimoga and Bengaluru. The former Karnataka Chief Minister had taken an in-assailable lead over his rivals in hometown Shimoga.
As selection for the formation of the new cabinet gained momentum in Delhi, it was widely reported that the Lingayat strongman would be adequately rewarded with a plum portfolio in Modi's government.
A couple of days before the swearing in, an emissary from BJP's central leadership met Yediyurappa. The former CM was told that he would not be accommodated in the union council. With a few corruption cases still looming about, perhaps the new dispensation in Delhi thought it prudent not to take any chances while taking a fresh guard.
Some other leader in Yediyurappa's place might have taken offence and reacted strongly. But not BSY, who like any gifted exponent of politics knows the essence of timing in this craft.
The Lingayat leader kept his counsel to survive and fight another day. The patience paid off when BSY became the chief minister for the fourth time in 2019 after the collapse of HD Kumaraswamy led JD(S)-Congress government.
Two years later, grapevines in Bengaluru and Delhi are again abuzz with possible change of guard in Karnataka. The rebel group had camped in Delhi earlier this month to seek leadership change.
Having run many errands to Delhi, the pack is once again back in the state. CM has asked the dissidents to focus on Covid relief-work instead. State unit chief Nalin Kumar Kateel has sought to put lid on any further speculations by announcing that the chief minister will complete his term.
So, has the storm finally blown over for the septuagenarian leader? And would he now complete his tenure ending May, 2023?
Two years in politics is a long time and a lot of water will flow down the Sharavati in the next two years.
As speculations continue, BSY's chances of continuing at the helm, it seems, would depend on BJP's political assessment on two counts.
First, whether the party wants to contest the next assembly polls in the state under BSY's leadership. If not, then what is the risk assessment on Yediyurappa's intent to inflicting political damage to the mother ship if the push comes to shove.
The chief minister is now all of 78. Does he have the ability to provide effective leadership in the next assembly polls? No doubt, he remains the tallest Lingayat leader in the state, both within and outside the BJP. And the party has indeed reaped rich befits out of successfully cultivating leadership amongst an intermediary caste. Lingayats are now BJP's core base vote in the state. This is precisely the sort of social engineering the party has failed to emulate in any other contiguous province down south.
Karnataka that way was an exception. The upper caste-Lingayat binary between Ananth Kumar and Yediyurappa worked well for over two decades. Ananth Kumar at the center, Yediyurappa in the state. After Kumar's untimely death, the BJP has tried to fill that void by promoting Prahlad Joshi to the union council and appointing BL Santosh as National Secretary in-charge of organization.
Karnataka has had only 2 Brahmin Chief Ministers- Gundu Rao and Ramkrishna Hegde. The latter's leadership was pegged on anti-Congresses and Lingayat support base. Just ahead of the assembly polls in 2023, would the BJP want to experiment with an upper caste face?
If the alternative is to be chosen from the existing sitting MLAs, the first amongst equals must carry the right credentials to keep the social coalition of the party's support base intact.
Sensing an opening as matter drag on, BSY supporters have this week launched their counter offensive seeking removal of Tourism Minister CP Yogeshwar who been leading the charge against the chief minister.
For a very long period after the replacement of Anandiben Patel in Gujarat, BJP under Modi-Shah never did disturb any of its chief ministers. Not when Manohar Lal Khattar faced a tough time in Haryana. Not even when Raghubar Das was openly challenged by his ministerial colleague Saryu Rai.
BJP operated on the assumption or pretext that perhaps the high popularity rating of Modi was sufficient to tide over any local anti-incumbency in the provinces.
Entering the seventh year in office, the rule book has been tweaked a bit. Trivendra Singh Rawat has been asked to go just 12 months before Uttarakhand assembly polls. In Assam, altered political dynamics in the east has catapulted HB Sharma as Assam chief minister.
BJP is clearly looking to consolidate its states before the 2024 Lok Sabha polls. A win in provincial elections tends to provide electoral relief to national parties. And Karnataka elections can't be taken for granted. They will be fought much too close to the next Lok Sabha polls
If the BJP indeed decides to bite the bullet now in Karnataka, the party will also have to weigh in the risk factor before triggering a disruption. Will BSY trade punches as he did ten years back to launch his own outfit? Or will he hang up his gloves as and when he is asked to?
At loggerheads with LK Advani, Yediyurappa did not even wince once before parting ways. With age on his side, his aim then was to demonstrate his ability to inflict political damage on the party and to underscore his credentials as the un-dispute caste leader.
Quite unlike Uma Bharti in Madhya Pradesh and Babulal Marandi in Jharkhand, Yediyurappa succeeded on both counts. He did a Kalyan Singh to the BJP in Karnataka.
The party took Yediyurappa back before the next assembly polls- falling short of the half-way mark by a whisker. In 2019, the BJP even relaxed the 75-year-age bar for its first CM in any southern state.
As speculation over his continuation in office re-surface, BS Yediyurappa has maintained a studied calm. He has the ability to see the ball early. His political strokes are timed to perfection. He is tenacious and has an immense ability to fight back.
But like all good politicians he is also a very practical man.
The author is a senior journalist. The views expressed are personal.
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